Imagine someone tosses a coin. It comes up heads. Nothing suspicious there. It had to be either heads or tails and the one was as likely as the other.

He tosses the coin again and again the result is heads. Once again nothing suspicious. Two heads in a row is not uncommon.

How about three heads in a row? Would that make you suspect something wrong?

What about ten heads in a row?

It turns out that the chances of getting ten heads in a row is roughly one in a thousand[1]. What does that mean?

Well imagine you repeat this experiment ten thousand times. You toss the coin ten times. Then another ten times and so one for ten thousand iterations. You’ve now tossed the coin a hundred thousand times (10 × 10,000 times) and your hand is aching.

You now examine each sequence of ten tosses. One sequence could be THHTHHTTTH. Another could be THTHTHTHHT. Roughly ten of those ten thousand sequences would be HHHHHHHHHH. Another ten would be TTTTTTTTTT.

So would ten heads in a row arouse your suspicions? Or would you simply shrug your shoulders and say this was one of those rare occasions when ten heads in a row came up?

I think most of would start being suspicious after about five or six heads in a row. Even the most trusting and naïve would think there was something funny after ten consecutive heads. Or ten consecutive tails for example.

I’ve undertaken to provide evidence that a Conspiracy with a capital “C” engineered the crash. I’m going to do so by demonstrating that many groups of very smart people, operating independently of each other, would have make incredibly foolish decisions in order for the crash to be possible.

I don’t mean foolish in retrospect. I mean in the sense that it becomes increasingly hard to believe that they did not know what they were doing was foolish.

For the great crash to occur all the safeguards that had been erected to prevent a recurrence of the crash of 1929 had to be removed. The men, it was mainly men, who took the decisions to destroy all the safeguards knew their history, knew about 1929. How believable is it that they did not know what they were doing?

For us to believe the great crash was just bad luck we also have to believe that dozens of extremely smart people with PhDs in mathematics and statistics from top ranking universities somehow forgot all about undergraduate level probability theory. How likely is that?

We have to believe that Wall Street’s watchdog, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was asleep at the wheel not for a year or two but for eight years. We have to believe that they ignored all the evidence.

We have to believe that the man who was Chairman of the Federal Reserve for nineteen years, a man with a Ph.D. from an Ivy League university, forgot some basic economics that had been the topic of his doctoral dissertation.

It is not unknown for extremely smart people to make foolish decisions. The world is full of high IQ fools Vladimir Putin being a current example.

However what made the great crash possible is large numbers of very smart people, supposedly working independently of each other, making many foolish decisions over many years. What is more many of these decisions were reversible. Other smart people seeing, what was happening could have averted the train smash. As late as the summer of 2006 catastrophe could have been averted.

Eventually the succession of coincidences becomes too much. It’s like getting too many heads in a row. At some point you have to start wondering whether the game has been fixed. Or whether there’s a conspiracy in the background.

[1] To be precise it’s one in 1,024.

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